by Anura Guruge
on December 18, 2021

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Francis, having become Pope in March 2013, held a cardinal creating consistory every year, as of 2014, until last year. See image above. The average gap between his cardinal creating consistories was 1.13 months — i.e., just over a year.

So, per his track record, he is due a cardinal creating consistory NOW.

But, ‘he’, or to be more precise the Church, has a problem.

Per the prevailing, inviolable LAWS ONLY 120 cardinal electors may participate in a conclave.

Right now we are at EXACTLY 120 cardinal electors.

As you can see from the image above, barring unexpected deaths, this 120 number only falls rather slowly during 2022. On June 7, 2022, it will be down to 116. So, there will be 4 slots vacant.

As the image also shows, Francis, more than Benedict XVI & John Paul II, has been very cavalier about exceeding this 120 limit.

That was always dangerous. It was FINE as long as there was to be no conclave.

So, Francis, was gambling with his death — basically proclaiming that he will not die until the number fell to 120 or lower.

But, can he carry on with this gamble as he gets older & older?

Of course, he has another option — one that I have advocated for years.

He can RAISE the 120 limit — which was arbitrary in the first place, when it was set by Paul VI in 1973. That was 49- years ago.

Just like Paul VI, Francis can, at a stroke & arbitrarily, increase that number or do away with it altogether — saying that there is no limit to the number of electors that may participate in a conclave. [There is, however, a logistical problem here in terms of space. But, the Vatican can be creative.]

Another possibility, one that I have also previously talked about, is that of creating cardinals one at a time rather than holding a consistory where multiple are created. Absolutely, nothing — but nothing — to stop the pope doing that. So, he can create a new cardinal each time there is a new slot.

But, now you have all the data points.