by Anura Guruge
on July 9, 2023
It was just a week ago, exactly, that I predicted that Francis really must hold another cardinal creating consistory. So, I was proved right.
I pointed out that given his track record (see above chart) that he will AGAIN exceed the 120 cardinal elector limit. He did. I thought he would exceed it by 10 or 12. I was wrong on that. He will exceed it by 17 THOUGH it drops to 16 the next day & will be down 12 by the end of the year (barring any deaths).
There are 2 very crucial things the pope needs to do, ASAP, to GUARANTEE that his plans are not derailed.
They are:
1/ Issue, at once, a 1-line motu proprio stating that the 120 elector limit no longer applies.
It will take, at most, 10 minutes of his time, if that.
It will avoid what could become an ANTIPOPE scenario! Maybe even a SCHISM by U.S. Catholics!
Unless he lifts that limit, it could always be argued, validly, that the Next Conclave was not legitimate — that it was a STOLEN ELECTION.
It is so easy to avoid this.
That he continues to ignore this key issue & continues to dither is just another poor reflection of his character, competency & acumen.
2/ File at once, given his precarious health, an affidavit with the Vatican curial ‘Secretariat of Briefs‘ stating that all 21 designees have already been made cardinals in a secret/private consistory.
Then it does NOT matter if the September 30, 2023, consistory never takes place.
The document can be published so that the cardinals can come forward & take their place .
Perfectly, perfectly legal.
I have already talked about this, so I won’t rehash it — just give you this link.
I don’t think the extremely-unusual secret-consistory thing is a priority,the lack of precedent would make many people furious.
However,there is an absolute time bomb in the current election rules.
After a certain number of ballots,if no one has had two thirds of the votes,all subsequent ballots can only include the two top vote-getters.
The winner must still get two thirds.
If the two top vote getters both have one third plus one absolutely opposed to their winning,it becomes forbidden to ever consider anyone who does not have that impediment…and only the deaths of cardinal electors can alter that arithmetic.
Louis,
Funny that. Secret consistories were the norm, even as recently as the 1930s. Nobody changed the rules. You are right. Some folks would be unnerved BUT they should/would see that it was legal.
Your time bomb scenario is real. I have dealt with it in both my latest ‘Next Pope’ books. Basically one-third + one can consistently/continually BLOCK.
But, Louis, I am more & more convinced that this will be the first conclave in (what) 400 years that we see REAL, TRUE SIMONY at play. US Catholics will come up with millions, though I think that even $4 million might suffice, to buy 90% of African, Asian & Central American votes. Your turn. Talk about that scenario.
Thanks. Cheers
You called it! I was honestly expecting Francis to hold off until at least after Round One of the SoS was completed in the fall, as mentioned further below.
I understand. But he wanted his flunkies as cardinals so that they will have PRECEDENCE at the proceedings! Simple things. SMILE.
I don’t understand your criticism at all – just think of the consistories held under JP II in 2001 and 2003 when the total number of cardinal electors rose to 135 in each case.
As far as I remember, no one at that time was talking about a papal election that could be considered illegitimate. Likewise, the scenario of a schism in the Church was not envisaged at any time.
Despite all possible reservations against Francis, it would be appropriate to make a realistic and unprejudiced assessment of the current situation 😉
Pax et bonum !.
As ever I appreciate YOUR feedback. You make me think. PLEASE also refer to my comments to ‘Richard Truely’ above.
If I remember correctly, in both instances, him exceeding the 120 was questioned & it was CONVEYED that the pope thought he knew what he was doing. Even in 2003, JP II’s health was not as ‘IFY’ as is Francis’.
I, even then, said that a conclave, IF there were to be more than 120 would be a problem.
There was NO TALK of a schism with JP II because 85% of his flock were happy with what he was doing — especially the rich & vocal Americans.
Not so today.
Under Francis schism has been openly talked about by folks higher up than me.
If the next pope is a Francis follower I am sure there will be major repercussions. But, LUCKILY, I don’t think it will happen.
The U.S. will make sure it does NOT. I get more convinced of that by the day. The U.S. will buy the votes & they will consider it the best money they have ever spent.
Francis helps them by creating cardinals from destitute countries. As ever I could be wrong. But, I think I am fairly good at calling the Vatican. SMILE.
Pax. SMILE. Cheers, Anura
As I recall by 2003 JP II’s disability was a matter of extreme public spectacle that I have never seen approached with Francis.
While Francis has been dogged by the medical history of partial lung loss since his election,there’s no undercurrent I’ve seen that his holding office is seen as self-torture the way there was for JP II by the turn of this century.
True, very true. JPII, towards the end, with his Parkinson’s, was a sad sight. Francis isn’t. But Francis, in addition to lung, legs & stomach, appears to have heart trouble too. He keeps on putting on weight. But, he could surprise us all by hanging around for another 5 years or more — becoming the 2nd oldest since 1400.
Interesting times. Thanks. Cheers, Anura
In terms of verifiable documentation,Leo XIII is the longest-lived serving pope and Benedict XVI the longest-lived who had abdicated before dying,whatever the claims regarding St. Agatho.
Louis, you may not have seen this: https://www.guruge.com/pope-francis-who-turned-86-yesterday-will-become-the-3rd-oldest-pope-in-recorded-history-in-12-days/
I don’t count B16. He ceased to be pope when he resigned. SMILE.
IF you have other dates. I have quite the list too. Just need to find it again. Cheers. Thanks.
Mr G,
Thanks for your usual expert analysis. I agree that these simple steps you outline would make the situation much more solid in the event of the death of Francis.
When I think about why the pope does not address these simple items it makes me wonder if it is intentional. Maybe the feeling is that room has to be left for the “Holy Spirit” to guide/protect the church. In other words, if the Big Guy doesn’t agree with the picks then events occur which prevent them from taking their seats in the college.
Maybe this view is to fatalistic? Interesting to think about in any event…
Richard
Thank YOU. Now, please see comments from ‘Prospero’ (Peter the Austrian) below! We can’t win. SMILE. But, keeps me occupied. Thanks.
You could be right.
There is another take. To I, Francis is the Trump of RECENT popes — the least educated, least Roman exposure & least academic/intellectual. Like Trump he is surrounded by folks that tell him what he wants to hear. I honestly think that I know Canon & Conclave law much better than he does! And therein lies the problem. Like Trump. If you don’t know … then you do or don’t do things based on your lack of knowledge. SMILE.
I just hope he normalies things before the Holy Spirit blows the whistle.
Oh! I also think that the Holy Spirit has a sense of humor that, alas, even puts mine to shame. But, can you blame him? He has been around for donkey’s years & has never been able to consummate a marriage. He has to be very frustrated.
Cheers
Anura
I dunno about the simony thing. While some laypersons in the American church are wealthy, as far as the Electorate here in the US, most of the prelates (hand-picked by Blase Cupich himself) made in recent years are fully onboard with The Francis Agenda and whatever innovations may be alluded to (though as is typical with Francis in the most vague and inconsistent of ways) after the SoS. Yes, there are very vocal conservatives here (and elsewhere) but they are effectively paper tigers. All roar, no bite.
Sure, someone well-heeled might offer a newly-minted Cardinal “from the fringes” food and resources for their archdiocese in return for voting for “our boy” (whomever that might be), but even if it does happen somewhere, I don’t think that’d make much of an impact, honestly.
To pull that off would require buying off a LOT of cardinals, increasing the number of people involved, thereby increasing the chances of “getting caught”, further unwelcome media attention and so on. And all that would do would again open up the possibility of schism, only this time from the Francis flunkies themselves.
Gone are the days of Cardinal Spellman waving around $1000 bills (it is alleged) in postwar Rome.
Mark,
The simony thing, of course, is only my speculation. Kind of gut feeling.
What I have read is that large numbers of U.S. Catholics, in organized groups, small cliques & individually, arrive in Rome soon after a sede vacante. Most, by hook or by crook, manage to have some contact with cardinals. Many, it appears, have prior contacts in Rome that they have ‘cultivated’. There are lavish dinners & parties. Lots of money is spend.
We also know that since the 1920s the U.S. Catholic Church has always sent the Vatican huge donations ahead of conclaves to help fund them.
U.S. donors have paid or were going to pay for a lot of things, e.g., Domus, JP IIs swimming pool, his Rolex etc.
WE might need to do more research into prior svs.
But, all good fun. Thanks. Cheers, Anura
Sure thing–it is fun to speculate about this stuff, for sure! 🙂
In that spirit, let me indulge further: I think any funding from the US is going to be tendered (and tempered) from conservatives and liberals and middle of the road prelates here in this country, so other than helping to pay the bills via donations from big archdioceses like LA or Chicago or NY, I don’t see anyone really getting a chance to sway much here. Nothing to tip the balance anyway, IMHO.
It’s funny–even eleven years ago I would’ve thought the idea of any sort of schism for basically any reason to be completely ludicrous!. But at the same time, I thought a papal resignation was something left over from the late Middle Ages! It’s funny to consider how far we’ve all come (down, if you ask me) since the beginning of this pontificate. Things long considered confined to a distant past are now seen as real possibilities!
Sheesh!
Mark,
As you so rightly point out it is fun & good for your brain to do these “what ifs”.
You are even more of an expert than I on this, but from what I can see we have had over 120 years of relative calm & composure in the Church.
I have said it before, & I will say it AGAIN. MAYBE I was WRONG that Francis was NOT ‘Peter the Roman’! That alone says volumes.
Mark, this Trump, GOP, Clarence Thomas & Mega Donors. Also Soros. There are folks out there with money to spend.
Francis, with good intentions at heart, has made a lot of poor Cardinals — and ‘poor’ here refers JUST to their worldly goods. There was a time, as you know, when cardinals really were Princes. It is this devaluation of the College that makes me think of simony. Many of them will not need much for a vote. You know my adoptive father was an Ambassador in D.C. 1992 –> 1996. He would regale us, nightly, with the offers of the day he would receive from members of the U.S. Congress. So, I extrapolate.
******
Mark, you have real skin in the game. As I openly admit, I am impartial. So, …
I think there are enough who will be beyond mortified if the next pope is the Cousin Cardinal or (God help you) Tagle. They would much rather it was O’Malley (beard or no beard).
It is but food for thought. More later. PEACE. Enjoy. All the best. We are doging major storms. I, as you can imagine, righly worry that the lightning is always aimed at I. SMILE.
Cheers, Anura