by Anura Guruge
on June 10, 2022

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I can’t really gloat (let alone take much credit) since this was SO, SO ELEMENTARY.

IF CPI ran hot, even slightly, the market was going to go down. That is obvious. Inflation is still running high. You can see it all around us. So, I had a fairly good hunch that CPI will come in slightly higher than estimates. It did. The market tanked. QED.

It is good that AMZN has gone down, this much, since Monday’s split. The newbies to AMZN that piled in after the split have to learn their lessons. AMZN stock is volatile & it does not defy gravity.

I suspect that quite a few got caught in a margin squeeze. They borrowed against margin to buy AMZN and with stocks going down they are being asked to repay some of the margin they borrowed. So, they have to sell stock, in a hurry, including their new purchased AMZN shares to raise the cash. That sends AMZN prices even lower.

I will now NOT be surprised if we see AMZN trading BELOW $100 in the next month. SMILE. [Don’t worry about me. Thanks. I am OK. I am an options trader. SMILE.]

by Anura Guruge
on June 8, 2022

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It is NOT down much, just in the 1% range, BUT this is GOOD.

Why?

1/ It is a salutary lesson to all the NEWBIES piling into the stock, now that they can finally afford it, that AMZN is volatile. It goes up, down & sideways. You get into AMZN for the long-haul. So, this is not much of a drop, but it will make the newbies appreciate that they are not going to see AMZN going up each day.

There is a good chance that AMZN might go down even further, into the $115 range, if Friday’s CPI (Consumer Product Index) number shows that inflation is NOT abating. The market could go down taking AMZN with it. So, it is good to realize that the SPLIT price of $122.35 was NOT, & is NOT, a firm bottom.

Prior to the end of the year we can see AMZN both BELOW $116 & ABOVE $150.

This time next year I expect it to be sniffing at $200. (SMILE).

2/ This small drop gives some a chance to get in WITHOUT thinking they missed the boat. That is good. But, now they will get in understanding that AMZN will go down as well as up.

Chance for folks like us, long-term holders, to NIBBLE. SMILE.

3/ It is GREAT for option traders (like I). SMILE. When you trade options (cannily) it doesn’t matter if the underlying stock goes up or down! You just want it to move in one direction or the other. SMILE.