by Anura Guruge
on July 20, 2023
NO, I don’t think he still has ENOUGH!
Let’s assume the conclave is in early December — though I am increasingly coming to the opinion that Pope Francis is the new ETERNAL POPE & will continue to dither along for another 3 or 4 years! He probably will need to live that long if he wants to make sure that the NEXT POPE will continue HIS AGENDA — i.e., be a ‘Francis II’ in terms of being PROGRESSIVE.
In December 2023 (IGNORING the 120 elector limit (as everyone seems to be doing)), there will be 134 electors. 98 will be Francis creations.
To attain the REQUISITE TWO-THIRDS majority (rounded up) you will need 89 votes.
So, it would appear that Francis should have enough votes.
I DOUBT IT.
It is unlikely that ALL 98 will VOTE for the same candidate. That is the problem.
45 in opposition (i.e., ONE-THIRD plus one (for safe measures)) can continually block an election EVEN after we go into the just 2-candidate RUNOFF process in the ‘second week‘ (10 to 13 days after the start of the conclave).
This could be quite the contentious conclave & we, for the first time, could see a conclave enter the RUNOFF process. Wow.
Stay TUNED.
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