Tag Archives: electors

Pope Francis Should Have A Cardinal-Creating Consistory In November 2022 (If He Can).

by Anura Guruge
on February 27, 2022

Click to **ENLARGE**. From my magic cardinal elector spreadsheet.

Click to **ENLARGE**. From the same magic cardinal elector spreadsheet as above.

11 cardinal electors would have turned 80 & thus ‘aged out’ by this time next year.

Barring deaths, this would drop the cardinal elector count, now at 119, to 108. NO problem with that. Plenty enough cardinals to elect a pope. I always like to remind folks that the conclave that elected GOOD POPE John XXIII only consisted of 51 cardinals. So, 108 is more than enough.

The reason to have another — most likely his very LAST — cardinal-creating consistory would be to let Francis get a few more of his picks into the conclave.

If the conclave happens post February 2023 Francis could have 77 of his electors attending. This could account for around 64% of the electors. Still SHORT of the 66% majority required to elect a new pope, but awfully close.

November consistories are popular. Francis had already had 2 November consistories. So, it would not be incongruous. Plus, he likes to go above the 120 limit. This time, however, (barring deaths) he will only be 2 above the limit — until February.

This makes a lot of sense.

The only question is whether the pope will have the will & energy to hold one — assuming he is still pope.

Will Pope Francis Have Time To Create Any More New Cardinals?

2 Replies

by Anura Guruge
on December 18, 2021

Click to **ENLARGE**. From one of my magic papal spreadsheets.

Francis, having become Pope in March 2013, held a cardinal creating consistory every year, as of 2014, until last year. See image above. The average gap between his cardinal creating consistories was 1.13 months — i.e., just over a year.

So, per his track record, he is due a cardinal creating consistory NOW.

But, ‘he’, or to be more precise the Church, has a problem.

Per the prevailing, inviolable LAWS ONLY 120 cardinal electors may participate in a conclave.

Right now we are at EXACTLY 120 cardinal electors.

As you can see from the image above, barring unexpected deaths, this 120 number only falls rather slowly during 2022. On June 7, 2022, it will be down to 116. So, there will be 4 slots vacant.

As the image also shows, Francis, more than Benedict XVI & John Paul II, has been very cavalier about exceeding this 120 limit.

That was always dangerous. It was FINE as long as there was to be no conclave.

So, Francis, was gambling with his death — basically proclaiming that he will not die until the number fell to 120 or lower.

But, can he carry on with this gamble as he gets older & older?

Of course, he has another option — one that I have advocated for years.

He can RAISE the 120 limit — which was arbitrary in the first place, when it was set by Paul VI in 1973. That was 49- years ago.

Just like Paul VI, Francis can, at a stroke & arbitrarily, increase that number or do away with it altogether — saying that there is no limit to the number of electors that may participate in a conclave. [There is, however, a logistical problem here in terms of space. But, the Vatican can be creative.]

Another possibility, one that I have also previously talked about, is that of creating cardinals one at a time rather than holding a consistory where multiple are created. Absolutely, nothing — but nothing — to stop the pope doing that. So, he can create a new cardinal each time there is a new slot.

But, now you have all the data points.

Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet’s Papabili Standings Have To Have Taken A Nosedive After ‘Residential School’ Murders.

5 Replies

by Anura Guruge
on June 29, 2021

Click to access **MY post**, on this ‘**Next Pope**‘ Website in March 2021.

Click images to ENLARGE.
Both from ‘Google News‘ & relate to unforgivable crime of murdering, innocent indigenous kids forced to attend Canadian ‘Residential Schools‘.

As far as I can tell Marc Ouellet was not personally responsible for any of these heinous crimes — though he may have known about it way, way before it became public.

If so, why would his papabili rankings take a nosedive?

Very simple. The Church (& in this case represented by the ultra-politic Cardinal Electors) will NOT want a Canadian pope at this juncture.

Having Marc Ouellet as pope will bring this ‘problem’ way too close to the Vatican.

For a start, a Canadian pope will immediately draw more attention to this crime. It will not go away as the Vatican hopes it will. As long as there is a Canadian pope at the Vatican this crime will get talked about.

Furthermore, Ouellet, as a Canadian, will not be able to distance himself from the crimes — like Francis is doing.

The Canadian authorities & people will DEMAND that he, as pope, openly address the issue. He will have no choice but to apologize.

The Church & the other cardinals don’t want this.

Canada is now a problem.

A Canadian pope will exacerbate that problem & continue to draw attention to it.

So, with that the only plausible papabili from the Americas bit the dust!