Currently Archbishop Ilson de JesusĀ Montanari is BOTH Vice-Camerlengo & Secretary to the Dicastery of Bishops. That is fine & dandy, UNTIL we have a conclave.
Then we have a slight problem. The Secretary to the Dicastery of Bishops, SINCE 1965, is AUTOMATICALLY chosen as the Secretary to the Conclave.
That is the problem.
He, the good Archbishop, can’t do both jobs come the conclave.
The Vice is NEVER a cardinal elector BECAUSE he has to stay outside.
The Secretary has to GO INSIDE. Can’t be BOTH inside & out.
NOT A HUGE problem.
The conclave duties of the VICE are pretty mundane. Supervise perimeter border security. They can just assign someone else to do that.
HE would want to be the SECRETARY — & thus be PART of the conclave. He could also potentially get a red hat for being secretary. So, he will ask to be secretary. The Camerlengo can sort that out, without a pope being around.
So, a small wrinkle. Nothing serious. Something to bear in mind come the inevitable sede vacante.
Click to ENLARGE & view here. ‘Page 156 ‘Appendix B‘ of MY ‘The Conclave‘ book.
Right now as I dealt with yesterday, the Vatican is denying — with unnecessary vehemence — that there are no moves afoot, whatsoever, to modify the Conclave protocols. This follows the speculations a few days earlier that ‘Pope Francis‘ planned to changes the rules for ‘General Congregations’ — in the MAIN to preclude the over-80, non-elector cardinals from participating. As I then pointed out, that this change would not be that drastic — though, of course, the over-80s would resent it bitterly.
But, I got thinking about this on my daily 4-mile ambles in the morning.
The only change of SOME CONSEQUENCE to such a change would be that the DEAN, if over 80, will no longer be able to Preside over the General Congregations (GCs) as he has always done — even after the over-80 rulings.
I have often wondered whether this was good or bad. This is one of the anomalies, albeit not that great, in the current set of protocols.
An over-80 Dean presides over GCs (& most other matters that involve the entire College), BUT is NOT permitted to attend the Conclave.
The supposed Francis change (if it holds water) will fix that.
There will be continuity if the Dean is over 80. The same Cardinal Bishop who will Preside over the Conclave will also preside over the GCs. In a way that is good.
The Dean (albeit these days elected for 5-year (renewable) terms) invariably (though no longer as a guarantee) has a ton of experience & expertise in Vatican/Church matters & will know how to get stuff done. In 2013, ‘Angelo Sodano‘, though over-80, played quite role in pre-conclave happenings.
The current Dean, who was the one that EXPERTLY RAN the 2013 Conclave, i.e., ‘Giovanni Battista Re‘, is now 89. So, if the rules are changed he will be sidelines.
But, this is ALL SPECULATION right now.
Plus, I am no longer convinced that we will be seeing a sede vacante anytime soon!
Click to ENLARGE & view here. Page 156 of MY ‘The Conclave‘ book.
UDG came out in 1996 — 27-years ago.
It was UPDATED in 2013 (10-years ago) — by ‘Normas Nonnullas‘ (NN).
Now, rather than making MORE updates, it would behoove Pope Francis to promulgate a brand new, UPDATED & REVISED Apostolic Constitution that reflects today’s realties.
Yes, for a start he could totally eliminate the 120 max cardinal elector proviso. Don’t bother putting a limit — whether it be 135, 150, 175 or 250.
Just state the obvious & most logical. All cardinal electors could & should attend. End of subject. Rome has spoken.
All the updates from NN can & should be included — & maybe even updated.
There are still a few inconsistencies, even with NN, when it comes to sede vacante caused by death vs resignation. Let’s get all of those eliminated once and for all. Resignations will happen in the future.
Francis should make other changes he sees fit. The speculations about changing the rules for ‘General Congregations’ fall into this. It is his prerogative.
That said, in the end it would be curial STAFF who will draw up the final Constitution. It is said that John Paul II was heavily involved, hands-on, with UDG. That might explain why it was not as watertight as it should have been. (I discuss many of the irregularities in ‘The Conclave‘.) This time around Canon Lawyers must do the final draft.
Despite today’s news that he was feeling unwell, Francis has time. The curia might already be working on it.
So, I am ALL in favor of a new Constitution. HOW EXCITING. Smile.
Click to ENLARGE & read here. Link to original at ‘The Pillar‘.
RIGHT NOW, per ‘The Pillar‘, this is still hearsay.
Even if these SUPPOSED ‘General Congregation‘ related changes come to pass, I will NOT take issue with them.
Overall, IF that is all the pope intends to do, these changes are BENIGN & TRIVIAL.
As it is, attending the ‘General Congregations’ is NOT mandatory for the over-80 (i.e., non-elector) cardinals. This just takes it to the logical conclusion.
Yes, you can argue that the over-80s bring EXPERIENCE & expertise to the meetings. But, they DON’T have to attend the formal meetings to impart their wisdom to the under-80s. That is why they have PRATTICHE. {Look it up.}
Also to be fair, by the 6th General ALL of the important & NECESSARY work, i.e., setting up the LOGISTICS & protocols, is done. After that it just becomes a stage for grandstanding. Check what actually happened in the last two instances in my ‘The Conclave‘ book — Appendix A.
So, these two supposed changes to the Generals bother me none.
Yes, the over-80s will be LIVID. They will have to learn to live with it. {Smile}
But, I doubt IF these are the ONLY TWO changes the pope has in mind. {Smile} But, then again, he is old & not thinking that clearly. {Smile}
Let’s assume the conclave is in early December — though I am increasingly coming to the opinion that Pope Francis is the new ETERNAL POPE & will continue to dither along for another 3 or 4 years! He probably will need to live that long if he wants to make sure that the NEXT POPE will continue HIS AGENDA — i.e., be a ‘Francis II’ in terms of being PROGRESSIVE.
In December 2023 (IGNORING the 120 elector limit (as everyone seems to be doing)), there will be 134 electors. 98 will be Francis creations.
To attain the REQUISITE TWO-THIRDS majority (rounded up) you will need 89 votes.
So, it would appear that Francis should have enough votes.
I DOUBT IT.
It is unlikely that ALL 98 will VOTE for the same candidate. That is the problem.
45 in opposition (i.e., ONE-THIRD plus one (for safe measures)) can continually block an election EVEN after we go into the just 2-candidateRUNOFF process in the ‘second week‘ (10 to 13 days after the start of the conclave).
This could be quite the contentious conclave & we, for the first time, could see a conclave enter the RUNOFF process. Wow.
It was just a week ago, exactly, that I predicted that Francis really must hold another cardinal creating consistory. So, I was proved right.
I pointed out that given his track record (see above chart) that he will AGAIN exceed the 120 cardinal elector limit. He did. I thought he would exceed it by 10 or 12. I was wrong on that. He will exceed it by 17 THOUGH it drops to 16 the next day & will be down 12 by the end of the year (barring any deaths).
There are 2 very crucial things the pope needs to do, ASAP, to GUARANTEE that his plans are not derailed.
They are:
1/ Issue, at once, a 1-line motu proprio stating that the 120 elector limit no longer applies.
It will take, at most, 10 minutes of his time, if that.
It will avoid what could become an ANTIPOPE scenario! Maybe even a SCHISM by U.S. Catholics!
Unless he lifts that limit, it could always be argued, validly, that the Next Conclave was not legitimate — that it was a STOLEN ELECTION.
It is so easy to avoid this.
That he continues to ignore this key issue & continues to dither is just another poor reflection of his character, competency & acumen.
2/ File at once, given his precarious health, an affidavit with the Vatican curial ‘Secretariat of Briefs‘ stating that all 21 designees have already been made cardinals in a secret/private consistory.
Then it does NOT matter if the September 30, 2023, consistory never takes place.
The document can be published so that the cardinals can come forward & take their place .
Perfectly, perfectly legal.
I have already talked about this, so I won’t rehash it — just give you this link.
A year ago I did not think Pope Francis has the strength or energy, but I have had to reassess my position though he is, obviously, older & sicker than he was last year.
Basically, he does not have a choice.
He really needs to hold another cardinal creating consistory SOON. Given his health he might be forced to do it as early as August — which was when we had last.
Ideally, he would try to push it back till November. Then a couple more electors would have aged out.
I wanted to show you this analysis BEFORE I did any other posts. That way it will be easier for you to follow my rationales.
Pay particular attention to how he has ALWAYS exceeded the {now} SUPPOSED 120 elector limit. Appreciating this is key. I think at the next one he will blow past his previous highs and appoint as many as 10 or 12 ABOVE the 120 limit. OK?
Study this. I will refer to it in my subsequent posts.
Click to ENLARGE and read here. From ‘Catholic News Agency’ (click here to access).Click to ENLARGE. From my magic Excel spreadsheet. The 7 cardinal electors that will turn 80 in 2022.
Very strange, even with factoring in Francis’ Trump-like penchant for wanting to cause havoc because it makes HIM look important.
So let me highlight the MAJOR incongruities in what Francis plans to do & the gullible, mindless media coverage that just panders to this pope WITHOUT paying heed to Church Laws.
>> Announcing a list of new cardinals 3 months ahead of a consistory is EXTREMELY unusual. I am pretty sure it is a FIRST. It was ONLY in the last decade or so that the practice of announcing the list a month ahead came to be. Just hundred years ago (which is but recent history when it comes to the Vatican) we used to have SECRET CONSISTORIES. The names were NOT made public till after the creation process. NO. NO. I am NOT talking about cardinals created In Pectore (close to the heart). I am talking about Secret Consistories — which was the norm. But, to be fair, no big deal. Only slight problem is if any of those named don’t make it to the consistory. They do NOT become cardinals posthumously! You have to be alive in order to be created. So, the 3-months is unusual, but is the least of our problems.
>> The claim that Francis is having this in August in order to bring all the cardinals together IS BOGUS. Total hogwash. The Vatican should be ashamed for propagating this mistruth.
For the last 15 years or so cardinals around the world have congregated in Rome ahead of cardinal-creating consistories. That had become the norm. So, there is NOTHING different or special about the August 2022 gathering.
I read Francis’ Regina Caeli. He did NOT mention that this would be an EXTRAORDINARY consistory. That is KEY. This would ONLY have been special IF it was deemed extraordinary — i.e., mandatory attendance. Instead, it appears to be ORDINARY. Attend IF YOU CAN — but most make a point of attending. So, to try & paint this in a different light is disingenuous. Shame on the Vatican.
>> As you can see from the top 2 images, the Vatican & the media are ACTING as if Francis has overridden Paul VI’s 120-limit for conclaves. I have NOT seen an edict, & as you can see both pieces mention the 120 limit & how it has been exceeded.
This, as I have continually harped on about, is a PROBLEM, both legally & logistically.
Right now 120 is THE LAW. If that is violated, without Francis overriding it, the next election will NOT BE LEGITIMATE.
Plus, there are logistically issues. Accommodating more than 120 electors within the Sistine & the Domus will be a problem! So, don’t act as if this is NOTHING. This is a problem.
>> Francis is really putting the cat among the pigeons as to the next election. The electorate is now extremely splintered. There are too many micro-voting blocs. They will squabble. Asia & Africa now have significant clout. The next election will be a MESS!
That is my first take. Mark what I have to say. My track record when it comes to conclaves is good. SMILE. I do my research & I have done a LOT of research. My facts are unimpeachable. Period.
Click to ENLARGE. From my magic Excel spreadsheet. The 7 cardinal electors that will turn 80 in 2022.
Click to ENLARGE. From the same magic cardinal elector spreadsheet as above.
I had thought that he would wait until November 22 for his next cardinal-creating consistory.
But, with his increasing ill-health there is talk that there will be a June 2022 consistory.
IF SO, it will most likely be on June 28, 2022 — with the celebratory Mass on June 29, the Solemnity of Saints Peter and Paul. June 28/29 have traditionally been popular days for consistories.
On June 28, he will, however, only have 4 vacancies IF he does NOT increase the 120 cardinal electors at any given conclave stipulation. It is about time he did.
But, he has had a penchant for going over the 120 mark — apparently in the strong conviction of his longevity. But now, in 2022, he needs to be careful.
UNLESS he increases the 120 limit he should NOT go beyond creating 10 new cardinals. IF he did that, we will be down to 120 by the end of 2022. I don’t think he should be thinking beyond that. Even that might prove to be tricky. Yes, he might push it and add two more — taking into account the two electors who will age out in Jan. & Feb. 2023.
So, this, right now, is the BEST state-of-play.
He will, most likely, announce the cardinal designates next week — a month ahead of the consistory (as per what has become the new norm).
