He missed the September 2024 window. I guess his handlers thought it would be too much for him after his Asian trip. Fair enough.
November, Sat. 23 on the Eve of ‘Christ the King’ (on the Sunday) will be good. He has held two other cardinal creating consistories around THIS feast, in 2016 (his third) & 2020 (his seventh). This would be his 10th.
I guess, other than I, nobody, any longer, gives a monkey’s about the 120 elector limit. I think it could still lead to a potential schism UNLESS rectified. But, I think we are heading for a schism following the next conclave.
Given that the 120 limit is (unofficially dead) Francis should go ahead & create at least another 20 to 25 YOUNG electors (i.e., under 75). That way his backers will have a comfortable supermajority (i.e., 67%) come the next conclave. All bets will be off.
Click to ENLARGE & read here. From John Paul II’s UDG, the PREVAILING LAW.Click image to access this pivotal post from 12-days ago.
So the issue here is what would happen IF there were to be a conclave with over 120 electors on deck AND Pope Francis had NOT overridden the 120 MAX limit with an edict.
The growing consensus, that I have reluctantly come to agree with, is that ALL the cardinal electors WILL be PERMITTED to participate in the conclave IRRESPECTIVE of the 120 limit stated by THE LAW. OK. This now seems to be a given.
1/ He has to make sure that the 120 elector limit is overridden (one way or another). He needs all of HIS eligible electors in conclave willing & able to VOTE. This most likely is now a forgone conclusion. All of Francis’ electors will attend the next conclave.
2/ He has to delay his departure (one way or another) till February 4, 2023. At that point 8 electors created by the previous popes would have aged out.
A conclave post Feb. 4, 2023 will have 83 Francis electors & 42 not created by him. That just about clears the majority even IF all the non-Francis vote NO for a Francis fan. But, all of the Francis cardinals also have to be in bloc — & we can’t have any not attending due to illness.
Francis can make it easier by reducing the majority to 50%. Then it will be a GIVEN.
Click to ENLARGE & read here. From page 96 of my ‘The Conclave‘ book.Click to ENLARGE & read here. From page 153 of my ‘The Conclave‘ book.
I have been very adamant for a very long time that no more than 120 electors will be able to participate in a conclave without a new edict from the pope overriding Paul VI’s 1973 edict and the prevailing papal constitution, viz. Universi Dominici Gregis (UDG).
After a lot of thinking I have now come to the conclusion that I could have been wrong!
Why?
John XXIII, in 1958, did NOT issue an edict saying he was overriding Sixtus V longstanding 70 max cardinal limit. He just went ahead and created more than 70. Yes, things were more fluid those days. The prevailing constitution did not mention any limits as to how many cardinals could attend a conclave.
So, on John XXIII’s death, in 1963, 80 cardinals participated in the conclave. That was 10 above Sixtus V’s 70 limit.
I think the same can happen now.
The pope has spoken.
If there are more than 120 electors at the next conclave, ALL of them will probably be allowed to attend & vote — irrespective of the 120 limit in UDG!
Click to ENLARGE and read here. From ‘Catholic News Agency’ (click here to access).Click to ENLARGE. From my magic Excel spreadsheet. The 7 cardinal electors that will turn 80 in 2022.
Very strange, even with factoring in Francis’ Trump-like penchant for wanting to cause havoc because it makes HIM look important.
So let me highlight the MAJOR incongruities in what Francis plans to do & the gullible, mindless media coverage that just panders to this pope WITHOUT paying heed to Church Laws.
>> Announcing a list of new cardinals 3 months ahead of a consistory is EXTREMELY unusual. I am pretty sure it is a FIRST. It was ONLY in the last decade or so that the practice of announcing the list a month ahead came to be. Just hundred years ago (which is but recent history when it comes to the Vatican) we used to have SECRET CONSISTORIES. The names were NOT made public till after the creation process. NO. NO. I am NOT talking about cardinals created In Pectore (close to the heart). I am talking about Secret Consistories — which was the norm. But, to be fair, no big deal. Only slight problem is if any of those named don’t make it to the consistory. They do NOT become cardinals posthumously! You have to be alive in order to be created. So, the 3-months is unusual, but is the least of our problems.
>> The claim that Francis is having this in August in order to bring all the cardinals together IS BOGUS. Total hogwash. The Vatican should be ashamed for propagating this mistruth.
For the last 15 years or so cardinals around the world have congregated in Rome ahead of cardinal-creating consistories. That had become the norm. So, there is NOTHING different or special about the August 2022 gathering.
I read Francis’ Regina Caeli. He did NOT mention that this would be an EXTRAORDINARY consistory. That is KEY. This would ONLY have been special IF it was deemed extraordinary — i.e., mandatory attendance. Instead, it appears to be ORDINARY. Attend IF YOU CAN — but most make a point of attending. So, to try & paint this in a different light is disingenuous. Shame on the Vatican.
>> As you can see from the top 2 images, the Vatican & the media are ACTING as if Francis has overridden Paul VI’s 120-limit for conclaves. I have NOT seen an edict, & as you can see both pieces mention the 120 limit & how it has been exceeded.
This, as I have continually harped on about, is a PROBLEM, both legally & logistically.
Right now 120 is THE LAW. If that is violated, without Francis overriding it, the next election will NOT BE LEGITIMATE.
Plus, there are logistically issues. Accommodating more than 120 electors within the Sistine & the Domus will be a problem! So, don’t act as if this is NOTHING. This is a problem.
>> Francis is really putting the cat among the pigeons as to the next election. The electorate is now extremely splintered. There are too many micro-voting blocs. They will squabble. Asia & Africa now have significant clout. The next election will be a MESS!
That is my first take. Mark what I have to say. My track record when it comes to conclaves is good. SMILE. I do my research & I have done a LOT of research. My facts are unimpeachable. Period.
Click to ENLARGE. From my magic Excel spreadsheet. The 7 cardinal electors that will turn 80 in 2022.
Click to ENLARGE. From the same magic cardinal elector spreadsheet as above.
I had thought that he would wait until November 22 for his next cardinal-creating consistory.
But, with his increasing ill-health there is talk that there will be a June 2022 consistory.
IF SO, it will most likely be on June 28, 2022 — with the celebratory Mass on June 29, the Solemnity of Saints Peter and Paul. June 28/29 have traditionally been popular days for consistories.
On June 28, he will, however, only have 4 vacancies IF he does NOT increase the 120 cardinal electors at any given conclave stipulation. It is about time he did.
But, he has had a penchant for going over the 120 mark — apparently in the strong conviction of his longevity. But now, in 2022, he needs to be careful.
UNLESS he increases the 120 limit he should NOT go beyond creating 10 new cardinals. IF he did that, we will be down to 120 by the end of 2022. I don’t think he should be thinking beyond that. Even that might prove to be tricky. Yes, he might push it and add two more — taking into account the two electors who will age out in Jan. & Feb. 2023.
So, this, right now, is the BEST state-of-play.
He will, most likely, announce the cardinal designates next week — a month ahead of the consistory (as per what has become the new norm).
Click to ENLARGE. From my magic cardinal elector spreadsheet.
Click to ENLARGE. From the same magic cardinal elector spreadsheet as above.
11 cardinal electors would have turned 80 & thus ‘aged out’ by this time next year.
Barring deaths, this would drop the cardinal elector count, now at 119, to 108. NO problem with that. Plenty enough cardinals to elect a pope. I always like to remind folks that the conclave that elected GOOD POPE John XXIII only consisted of 51 cardinals. So, 108 is more than enough.
The reason to have another — most likely his very LAST — cardinal-creating consistory would be to let Francis get a few more of his picks into the conclave.
If the conclave happens post February 2023 Francis could have 77 of his electors attending. This could account for around 64% of the electors. Still SHORT of the 66% majority required to elect a new pope, but awfully close.
November consistories are popular. Francis had already had 2 November consistories. So, it would not be incongruous. Plus, he likes to go above the 120 limit. This time, however, (barring deaths) he will only be 2 above the limit — until February.
This makes a lot of sense.
The only question is whether the pope will have the will & energy to hold one — assuming he is still pope.
Click to ENLARGE. From one of my magic papal spreadsheets.
Francis, having become Pope in March 2013, held a cardinal creating consistory every year, as of 2014, until last year. See image above. The average gap between his cardinal creating consistories was 1.13 months — i.e., just over a year.
So, per his track record, he is due a cardinal creating consistory NOW.
But, ‘he’, or to be more precise the Church, has a problem.
Per the prevailing, inviolable LAWS ONLY 120 cardinal electors may participate in a conclave.
Right now we are at EXACTLY 120 cardinal electors.
As you can see from the image above, barring unexpected deaths, this 120 number only falls rather slowly during 2022. On June 7, 2022, it will be down to 116. So, there will be 4 slots vacant.
That was always dangerous. It was FINE as long as there was to be no conclave.
So, Francis, was gambling with his death — basically proclaiming that he will not die until the number fell to 120 or lower.
But, can he carry on with this gamble as he gets older & older?
Of course, he has another option — one that I have advocated for years.
He can RAISE the 120 limit — which was arbitrary in the first place, when it was set by Paul VI in 1973. That was 49- years ago.
Just like Paul VI, Francis can, at a stroke & arbitrarily, increase that number or do away with it altogether — saying that there is no limit to the number of electors that may participate in a conclave. [There is, however, a logistical problem here in terms of space. But, the Vatican can be creative.]
Another possibility, one that I have also previously talked about, is that of creating cardinals one at a time rather than holding a consistory where multiple are created. Absolutely, nothing — but nothing — to stop the pope doing that. So, he can create a new cardinal each time there is a new slot.
