by Anura Guruge
on February 22, 2022
Francis has now overtaken beloved (& long-serving) St. John Paul II to become the 7th oldest pope as of 1400. In September he will leapfrog the prior pope, i.e., Benedict XVI, to become the 4th oldest pope. At year end, IF he is still pope, he will become the 3rd oldest pope as of 1400.
The birthdates of popes prior to 1400 are either unavailable or unreliable. Hence, any meaningful age-related claims as to popes have to be ‘as of 1400’.
Longevity is UP across the world; people are just living to be older. That is irrefutable.
Yes, better healthcare, nutrition & increasing awareness to fitness have all played a role.
The Queen is 95 & has ruled for an unprecedented 70-years!
The last pope, Benedict XVI resigned at 85.7 years. (See above) He is currently 94. If he had NOT resigned he would be the OLDEST pope since 1400!
The current pope is 85 years old.
The pope prior to Benedict XVI, i.e., the beloved John Paul II, reigned until he was 84.9 years old (i.e., nearly 85).
So, the last 3 popes have all lived beyond 84.
Then, look at the last chart above — the reign lengths of the last 14 popes. We have seen some very long pontificates.
Starting in 2010 I was adamant that the next pope after Benedict XVI would be over 75 when elected. Many disagreed with I. Many called me delusional. I was RIGHT. Francis was 76; 9th oldest to be elected.
Soon after his election he hinted that he may resign when he got ‘too old’. That now seems unlikely.
This creates a dilemma, i.e., popes who per their longevity can rule into their late 80s & maybe even 90s. Even more than their age, it becomes a matter of how long they reign. A pope elected at 70 can now easily have a pontificate that stretches into two decades.
I, until quite recently, was steadfast that the pope that succeeds Francis will also be over 75. I am NOW rethinking that.
I think the next pope will be even older! Yes, even older meaning close to 78 or 79. Yikes. I think that the electors might even consider an over 80 cardinal. NOTHING, BUT NOTHING in the laws that says a pope elect has to be under 80. NOTHING.
So, that is my current thinking. I even have some new papabili names. That will be my next post.
Mr G,
I think your analysis of the situation is very accurate, but I do have a hard time imagining that the electors would select a non-voting cardinal. Although it is certainly possible, it seems to me that there would be a natural tendency to pick from among the people in the room where the electors can stare each other down and see how the candidates react to the early vote counts.
Richard Truely
Your viewpoint is certainly valid & I have a collaborator who is now insisting that next pope will be younger than 70. Maybe even in the 65 age range. I do NOT have an inside track on this. Just my gut feel. I am NOT talking about ancient, forgotten non-electors. What I am thinking about are those, GIANTS in their time, who are now just over 80; e.g., Scola, Vallini, Baldisseri etc. What is the age range YOU are favoring? Thanks. All the best.